{"F": {"ts_code": "300963.SZ", "name": "中洲特材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "金属新材料", "sw3": "其他金属新材料", "ind": "金属新材料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210409", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.63, "pe_ttm": 88.2887, "pb": 4.7201, "dv_ttm": 0.2236, "total_mv": 533398.32, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.3, 17.5, 20.0, 17.4, 19.9, 19.2], "rev_series": [6.0, 6.8, 8.7, 10.9, 10.8, 9.1], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, 0.8, 0.8, 1.0, 0.5], "roe_series": [12.2, 6.6, 8.9, 8.6, 9.3, 5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.9, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -2.5, "ocf_yield": -1.9, "gm_median": 19.2, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 8.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.1, "fix_assets": 7.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.72, "capex_dep": 0.64, "interest_debt": 4.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 40.9, "debt_mv": 8.5, "payout": 21.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.5, "np_cagr3": -12.3, "rev_yoy": 18.5, "np_yoy": 19.6, "np_vol": 40.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["变形高温耐蚀合金", 23.0], ["铸造高温耐蚀合金", 14.0], ["特种合金焊材", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 234.8, "ret_prev2_year": -5.9, "ret_ytd": -44.0, "ret_pivot": 137.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.7, "ret_60": -13.9, "ret_120": -46.7, "ret_250": -44.6, "mdd_250": -61.0, "vol_250": 58.8, "pos_52w": 44.1}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 48, "hard": 61, "bondness": 38}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.2%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.5%(经营现金流/市值 -1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.2%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.64 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 88.3 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -14% / -47%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「金属新材料」35 家中位:PE 58.5 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 35%。", "中洲特材:PE 比行业中位高 29.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.2个百分点。"]}}