{"F": {"ts_code": "300962.SZ", "name": "中金辐照", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "专业服务", "sw3": "其他专业服务", "ind": "专业服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210409", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.08, "pe_ttm": 36.6457, "pb": 3.3006, "dv_ttm": 0.6881, "total_mv": 345314.4852, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [56.9, 61.0, 63.6, 63.4, 62.6, 59.8], "rev_series": [2.6, 3.1, 3.4, 3.4, 3.6, 3.6], "np_series": [0.6, 0.9, 1.1, 1.1, 1.1, 1.2], "roe_series": [10.3, 12.0, 12.4, 12.0, 11.7, 12.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.7, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -6.5, "ocf_yield": 5.3, "gm_median": 62.6, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 6.7, "npm_median": 32.8, "roe_median": 12.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 57.3, "fix_assets": 9.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.3, "capex_dep": 4.35, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 34.3, "debt_mv": 3.5, "payout": 35.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.6, "np_cagr3": 3.2, "rev_yoy": 1.0, "np_yoy": -37.0, "np_vol": 15.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["辐照技术服务", 47.0], ["合计特别调整", 3.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.1, "ret_prev2_year": 10.0, "ret_ytd": -19.0, "ret_pivot": 7.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.6, "ret_60": 2.1, "ret_120": -30.6, "ret_250": -29.3, "mdd_250": -39.6, "vol_250": 30.2, "pos_52w": 66.0}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 77, "hard": 92, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 36.6 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 62.6%、固定资产占比 57%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 57%、毛利率 62.6% 两条都占,但所在行业(社会服务)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.5%(经营现金流/市值 5.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 62.6%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 4.35 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 36.6 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 2% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业服务」33 家中位:PE 36.6 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 45.6% / 固定资产占比 24% / 分红率 43%。", "中金辐照:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 33.0个百分点。"]}}