{"F": {"ts_code": "300961.SZ", "name": "深水海纳", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210330", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.66, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.9707, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 259892.48, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.7, 39.0, 32.0, 32.9, 24.8, 27.9], "rev_series": [5.7, 5.5, 5.0, 4.7, 3.7, 3.7], "np_series": [0.9, 0.4, -0.0, -0.3, -2.5, -1.8], "roe_series": [14.3, 4.5, -0.1, -3.4, -28.0, -26.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.6, "np_ttm": -2.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 32.0, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": -6.7, "roe_median": -3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.6, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.97, "capex_dep": 0.34, "interest_debt": 8.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 77.9, "debt_mv": 32.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -9.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -8.9, "np_yoy": -261.2, "np_vol": 1056.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["工业污水处理-运营服务", 18.0], ["工业污水处理-运营业务", 18.0], ["优质供水-运营服务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.4, "ret_prev2_year": -10.5, "ret_ytd": 2.4, "ret_pivot": 118.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 23.9, "ret_60": 32.9, "ret_120": 7.4, "ret_250": -28.9, "mdd_250": -54.3, "vol_250": 58.3, "pos_52w": 73.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 19, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 78%,有息负债 8 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.0%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.0%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 0.34 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 24% / 33% / 7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "深水海纳:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点。"]}}