{"F": {"ts_code": "300960.SZ", "name": "通业科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210329", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.82, "pe_ttm": 55.0849, "pb": 3.7204, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 244134.5628, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [51.0, 47.7, 46.2, 44.7, 43.4, 41.4], "rev_series": [3.2, 2.9, 3.0, 3.6, 4.2, 5.1], "np_series": [0.7, 0.5, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.5], "roe_series": [22.3, 9.0, 4.6, 5.6, 7.8, 8.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 44.7, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 10.3, "roe_median": 7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.7, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.72, "capex_dep": 1.29, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 40.8, "debt_mv": 6.2, "payout": 143.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 19.9, "np_cagr3": 21.5, "rev_yoy": -5.5, "np_yoy": -44.7, "np_vol": 30.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["检修服务", 24.0], ["检修、维修", 24.0], ["智能控制类", 14.0], ["电源类", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.4, "ret_prev2_year": 17.7, "ret_ytd": -33.2, "ret_pivot": 33.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.8, "ret_60": 0.4, "ret_120": -32.9, "ret_250": -45.6, "mdd_250": -57.1, "vol_250": 40.9, "pos_52w": 52.6}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 60, "hard": 14, "bondness": 41}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 55.1 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 44.7%、固定资产占比 9%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.7%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.7%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 1.29 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 55.1 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 0% / -33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "通业科技:PE 比行业中位高 28.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点。"]}}