{"F": {"ts_code": "300957.SZ", "name": "贝泰妮", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "美容护理", "sw2": "化妆品", "sw3": "品牌化妆品", "ind": "化妆品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210325", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.61, "pe_ttm": 25.8456, "pb": 2.3134, "dv_ttm": 1.9234, "total_mv": 1423719.6, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [76.3, 76.0, 75.2, 73.9, 73.7, 74.5], "rev_series": [26.4, 40.2, 50.1, 55.2, 57.4, 53.6], "np_series": [5.4, 8.6, 10.5, 7.6, 5.0, 5.1], "roe_series": [55.6, 29.0, 20.4, 13.3, 8.4, 8.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 55.8, "np_ttm": 5.5, "ocf_ttm": 10.2, "fcf_ttm": 9.2, "fcf_yield": 6.5, "ocf_yield": 7.2, "gm_median": 74.5, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 13.7, "roe_median": 13.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.3, "fix_assets": 6.8, "goodwill_ratio": 3.6, "pb_calc": 2.31, "capex_dep": 1.04, "interest_debt": 7.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 23.8, "debt_mv": 5.4, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": -21.6, "rev_yoy": 9.3, "np_yoy": 18.3, "np_vol": 33.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 23, "fwd_pe": 22.1, "fwd_pe2": 18.9, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 1.3, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["护肤品", 42.0], ["彩妆系列", 4.0], ["彩妆", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.0, "ret_prev2_year": -37.5, "ret_ytd": -13.7, "ret_pivot": -11.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.0, "ret_60": 2.0, "ret_120": -21.4, "ret_250": -27.6, "mdd_250": -39.9, "vol_250": 33.8, "pos_52w": 67.0}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 79, "hard": 13, "bondness": 49}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 74.5%,自由现金流/市值 6.5%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 74.5%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.5%(经营现金流/市值 7.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 74.5%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 1.04 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.8 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 2% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化妆品」16 家中位:PE 31.5 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 53.1% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 50%。", "贝泰妮:PE 比行业中位低 5.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 21.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.8个百分点。"]}}