{"F": {"ts_code": "300955.SZ", "name": "嘉亨家化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "美容护理", "sw2": "化妆品", "sw3": "化妆品制造及其他", "ind": "化妆品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210324", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.13, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.411, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 293630.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.3, 23.8, 24.0, 24.3, 19.7, 16.7], "rev_series": [9.7, 11.6, 10.5, 10.2, 9.2, 11.4], "np_series": [0.9, 1.0, 0.7, 0.4, -0.2, -0.4], "roe_series": [19.4, 13.1, 7.2, 4.1, -2.5, -4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.5, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 23.8, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.1, "fix_assets": 10.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.41, "capex_dep": 1.38, "interest_debt": 7.0, "debt_ebitda": 6.9, "debt_ratio": 54.9, "debt_mv": 23.7, "payout": 87.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 2.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 21.2, "np_yoy": 71.6, "np_vol": 55.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 224.1, "fwd_pe2": 25.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 792.0, "peg": 0.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["化妆品", 50.0], ["塑料包装容器", 30.0], ["家庭护理产品", 9.0], ["家居护理用品", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 167.5, "ret_prev2_year": -27.7, "ret_ytd": -29.8, "ret_pivot": 163.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.1, "ret_60": -29.0, "ret_120": -20.2, "ret_250": 42.6, "mdd_250": -42.5, "vol_250": 68.5, "pos_52w": 57.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 88, "bondness": 63}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 55%,有息负债 7 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 55%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 55%,资本开支/折旧 1.38 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 43%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -29% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化妆品」16 家中位:PE 31.5 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 53.1% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 50%。", "嘉亨家化:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 29.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 35.0个百分点。"]}}