{"F": {"ts_code": "300953.SZ", "name": "震裕科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210318", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 88.65, "pe_ttm": 29.7826, "pb": 4.411, "dv_ttm": 0.2398, "total_mv": 2158970.1145, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.6, 18.0, 12.3, 11.9, 13.9, 15.0], "rev_series": [11.9, 30.3, 57.5, 60.2, 71.3, 97.4], "np_series": [1.3, 1.7, 1.0, 0.4, 2.5, 5.1], "roe_series": [19.5, 15.3, 5.3, 1.7, 9.0, 13.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 120.8, "np_ttm": 7.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 13.9, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -13.3, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 9.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.6, "fix_assets": 54.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.41, "capex_dep": 0.82, "interest_debt": 44.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 68.2, "debt_mv": 20.6, "payout": 9.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 19.2, "np_cagr3": 70.4, "rev_yoy": 58.0, "np_yoy": 100.3, "np_vol": 202.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 16.8, "fwd_pe2": 11.6, "fwd_g1": 77.0, "fwd_g2": 45.0, "peg": 0.37, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["精密结构件业务", 28.0], ["精密结构件", 28.0], ["其他业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 240.3, "ret_prev2_year": 26.6, "ret_ytd": -26.0, "ret_pivot": 286.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.0, "ret_60": -36.7, "ret_120": -27.3, "ret_250": -5.9, "mdd_250": -53.4, "vol_250": 61.2, "pos_52w": 48.5}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 40, "hard": 57, "bondness": 15}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.9%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.9%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 0.82 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.8 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -37% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "震裕科技:PE 比行业中位低 6.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.8个百分点。"]}}