{"F": {"ts_code": "300952.SZ", "name": "恒辉安防", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "鞋帽及其他", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210311", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.19, "pe_ttm": 57.379, "pb": 2.2537, "dv_ttm": 0.901, "total_mv": 391185.2085, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.6, 23.0, 25.0, 25.1, 22.0, 23.9], "rev_series": [8.3, 9.5, 8.9, 9.8, 12.7, 12.3], "np_series": [1.1, 0.9, 1.2, 1.1, 1.2, 1.0], "roe_series": [24.0, 13.0, 12.4, 9.9, 10.0, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.4, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_yield": -7.3, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 23.9, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 10.3, "roe_median": 10.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.7, "fix_assets": 16.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.25, "capex_dep": 4.32, "interest_debt": 6.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 40.1, "debt_mv": 15.8, "payout": 32.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.2, "np_cagr3": -5.7, "rev_yoy": 1.6, "np_yoy": -61.3, "np_vol": 17.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 23.5, "fwd_pe2": 20.0, "fwd_g1": 145.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 1.38, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["功能性安全防护手套", 45.0], ["超高分子量聚乙烯纤维及其复合材料", 3.0], ["普通安全防护手套以及其他防护用品", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 99.0, "ret_prev2_year": -3.3, "ret_ytd": -44.4, "ret_pivot": 42.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.4, "ret_60": -18.8, "ret_120": -41.8, "ret_250": -25.0, "mdd_250": -60.0, "vol_250": 61.4, "pos_52w": 43.0}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 52, "hard": 86, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 57.4 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%、固定资产占比 54%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.3%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 4.32 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 57.4 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 43%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -19% / -42%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "恒辉安防:PE 比行业中位高 19.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 39.6个百分点。"]}}