{"F": {"ts_code": "300950.SZ", "name": "德固特", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210303", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.26, "pe_ttm": 54.7341, "pb": 3.6271, "dv_ttm": 1.0384, "total_mv": 295918.344, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.2, 31.3, 40.7, 36.3, 38.4, 37.5], "rev_series": [2.5, 2.9, 3.2, 3.1, 5.1, 5.5], "np_series": [0.6, 0.4, 0.7, 0.4, 1.0, 0.9], "roe_series": [17.3, 9.1, 10.9, 6.0, 13.8, 11.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.4, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 37.5, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -3.4, "npm_median": 16.8, "roe_median": 10.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.0, "fix_assets": 3.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.63, "capex_dep": 2.15, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 34.2, "debt_mv": 3.1, "payout": 32.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 19.1, "np_cagr3": 12.0, "rev_yoy": -3.0, "np_yoy": -77.5, "np_vol": 70.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["节能换热装备", 32.0], ["专用定制装备", 9.0], ["粉体及其他环保装备", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.9, "ret_prev2_year": 1.1, "ret_ytd": -15.0, "ret_pivot": 67.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.5, "ret_60": 13.3, "ret_120": -15.1, "ret_250": -35.4, "mdd_250": -64.6, "vol_250": 53.0, "pos_52w": 47.7}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 56, "hard": 48, "bondness": 22}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 4 亿,占总资产 30%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 37.5%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.2%,股息率 1.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 91%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 30%)和定价权(毛利率 37.5% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.5%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 2.15 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 54.7 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -65%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 13% / -15%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "德固特:PE 比行业中位高 12.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.0个百分点。"]}}