{"F": {"ts_code": "300948.SZ", "name": "冠中生态", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "基础建设", "sw3": "园林工程", "ind": "基础建设", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210225", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.02, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.4816, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 345528.0107, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.9, 40.8, 27.7, 32.2, 18.4, 17.0], "rev_series": [2.9, 4.0, 4.5, 3.8, 1.5, 1.5], "np_series": [0.6, 0.8, 0.6, 0.3, -0.7, -0.5], "roe_series": [14.6, 12.4, 6.9, 3.9, -8.3, -5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.6, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": -2.0, "gm_median": 27.7, "gm_std": 8.9, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -15.2, "npm_median": 9.1, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.9, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.44, "capex_dep": 4.33, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 38.6, "debt_mv": 7.6, "payout": 24.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -30.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 11.9, "np_yoy": -61.5, "np_vol": 124.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["市政公用", 40.0], ["综合性治理", 5.0], ["园林绿化", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 130.5, "ret_prev2_year": -34.4, "ret_ytd": -3.1, "ret_pivot": 135.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.3, "ret_60": -15.7, "ret_120": -2.8, "ret_250": 77.5, "mdd_250": -51.0, "vol_250": 78.2, "pos_52w": 68.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 14, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 39%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 -2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.7%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 4.33 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 78%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -16% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「基础建设」40 家中位:PE 11.7 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 28%。", "冠中生态:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.9个百分点。"]}}