{"F": {"ts_code": "300947.SZ", "name": "德必集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "商业物业经营", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.24, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.9428, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 230333.8548, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.9, 39.6, 41.5, 33.0, 34.3, 28.3], "rev_series": [8.3, 9.5, 7.8, 11.7, 12.6, 12.2], "np_series": [1.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, -0.6], "roe_series": [11.0, 9.5, 2.6, 2.6, 2.7, -4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.2, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": 7.6, "fcf_ttm": 5.6, "fcf_yield": 24.4, "ocf_yield": 32.8, "gm_median": 34.3, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 11.6, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.5, "fix_assets": 0.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.94, "capex_dep": 47.62, "interest_debt": 32.4, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 75.6, "debt_mv": 140.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 16.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -0.9, "np_yoy": -54.1, "np_vol": 105.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["租赁服务", 72.0], ["会员及其他服务", 28.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.9, "ret_prev2_year": 1.1, "ret_ytd": -24.3, "ret_pivot": 12.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.5, "ret_60": 6.8, "ret_120": -14.7, "ret_250": -35.5, "mdd_250": -48.5, "vol_250": 42.9, "pos_52w": 65.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 58, "hard": 1, "bondness": 17}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 76%,有息负债 32 亿,经营现金流/市值 32.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.3%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 24.4%(经营现金流/市值 32.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.3%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 11.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 47.62 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 7% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "德必集团:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.9个百分点。"]}}