{"F": {"ts_code": "300945.SZ", "name": "曼卡龙", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "饰品", "sw3": "钟表珠宝", "ind": "饰品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.16, "pe_ttm": 29.0967, "pb": 1.9942, "dv_ttm": 1.2918, "total_mv": 344886.2256, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.2, 20.0, 16.6, 14.6, 13.4, 15.0], "rev_series": [8.1, 12.5, 16.1, 19.2, 23.6, 27.4], "np_series": [0.6, 0.7, 0.5, 0.8, 1.0, 1.1], "roe_series": [12.6, 10.8, 6.9, 6.8, 6.1, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.6, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 15.0, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -11.6, "npm_median": 4.1, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.6, "fix_assets": 0.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.99, "capex_dep": 2.05, "interest_debt": 2.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 14.8, "debt_mv": 5.8, "payout": 37.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 19.4, "np_cagr3": 28.2, "rev_yoy": -37.0, "np_yoy": 5.2, "np_vol": 22.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 22.3, "fwd_pe2": 18.4, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.06, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["创意黄金饰品", 28.0], ["经典黄金饰品", 19.0], ["合计特别调整", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.6, "ret_prev2_year": -18.4, "ret_ytd": -18.0, "ret_pivot": 66.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.7, "ret_60": 14.1, "ret_120": -24.3, "ret_250": -31.4, "mdd_250": -58.4, "vol_250": 56.5, "pos_52w": 53.5}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 41, "hard": 4, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 29.1 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%、固定资产占比 3%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 2.05 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.1 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 14% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饰品」15 家中位:PE 57.4 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 15.0% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 59%。", "曼卡龙:PE 比行业中位低 28.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}