{"F": {"ts_code": "300943.SZ", "name": "春晖智控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.5, "pe_ttm": 118.5805, "pb": 7.1337, "dv_ttm": 0.3662, "total_mv": 723561.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.9, 28.6, 25.2, 25.8, 26.4, 25.0], "rev_series": [5.1, 5.3, 4.9, 4.7, 5.1, 5.6], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 0.8, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [15.6, 10.7, 8.6, 8.2, 5.6, 6.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.6, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 25.8, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": 13.6, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.5, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 2.0, "pb_calc": 7.13, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 21.4, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 44.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.1, "np_cagr3": -7.3, "rev_yoy": 2.0, "np_yoy": 3.4, "np_vol": 14.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["供热控制产品", 15.0], ["燃气控制产品", 9.0], ["内燃机配件产品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 63.4, "ret_prev2_year": -9.5, "ret_ytd": 71.9, "ret_pivot": 256.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 26.5, "ret_60": 10.3, "ret_120": 6.7, "ret_250": 91.7, "mdd_250": -60.6, "vol_250": 86.3, "pos_52w": 70.4}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 50, "hard": 9, "bondness": 34}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 118.6 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 118.6 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 92%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 86%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 26% / 10% / 7%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "春晖智控:PE 比行业中位高 68.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.3个百分点。"]}}