{"F": {"ts_code": "300941.SZ", "name": "创识科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.26, "pe_ttm": 142.7415, "pb": 2.6144, "dv_ttm": 0.4999, "total_mv": 332923.5, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.7, 41.4, 44.7, 54.8, 51.3, 37.0], "rev_series": [6.1, 4.2, 4.0, 2.6, 2.1, 2.5], "np_series": [1.5, 1.1, 1.1, 0.8, 0.6, 0.3], "roe_series": [38.2, 13.0, 9.1, 6.4, 4.3, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": -0.9, "gm_median": 44.7, "gm_std": 6.5, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 7.0, "npm_median": 26.3, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.6, "fix_assets": 0.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 2.61, "capex_dep": 0.2, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 5.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 51.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -14.5, "np_cagr3": -33.3, "rev_yoy": 16.5, "np_yoy": -147.9, "np_vol": 15.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电子支付及行业解决方案", 32.0], ["数字营销", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": -21.8, "ret_prev2_year": 25.9, "ret_ytd": -30.9, "ret_pivot": 8.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.8, "ret_60": 10.5, "ret_120": -24.6, "ret_250": -43.1, "mdd_250": -56.3, "vol_250": 44.8, "pos_52w": 54.7}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 64, "hard": 1, "bondness": 42}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 142.7 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 1%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.7%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.7%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 0.20 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 142.7 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 10% / -25%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "创识科技:PE 比行业中位高 91.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.1个百分点。"]}}