{"F": {"ts_code": "300932.SZ", "name": "三友联众", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "配电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.3, "pe_ttm": 45.137, "pb": 2.8369, "dv_ttm": 1.201, "total_mv": 506404.528, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.3, 19.2, 17.1, 19.2, 18.3, 17.8], "rev_series": [13.1, 16.9, 18.5, 18.4, 21.7, 23.1], "np_series": [1.5, 1.2, 0.8, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7], "roe_series": [18.8, 9.3, 4.5, 2.7, 3.7, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.3, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 18.3, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -9.3, "npm_median": 3.1, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.5, "fix_assets": 15.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.84, "capex_dep": 1.25, "interest_debt": 7.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 51.7, "debt_mv": 14.0, "payout": 83.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.6, "np_cagr3": -1.4, "rev_yoy": 19.3, "np_yoy": 92.2, "np_vol": 29.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["继电器", 42.0], ["互感器", 4.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.1, "ret_prev2_year": 18.8, "ret_ytd": 34.1, "ret_pivot": 131.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.0, "ret_60": 34.8, "ret_120": 0.7, "ret_250": 29.6, "mdd_250": -33.3, "vol_250": 51.1, "pos_52w": 91.2}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 46, "hard": 66, "bondness": 56}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.3%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.3%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 1.25 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.1 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 30%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 91%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 35% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "三友联众:PE 比行业中位高 1.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 26.6个百分点。"]}}