{"F": {"ts_code": "300925.SZ", "name": "法本信息", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20201230", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.96, "pe_ttm": 73.3654, "pb": 2.8516, "dv_ttm": 0.3312, "total_mv": 641348.5817, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.4, 26.4, 24.6, 21.2, 19.8, 17.5], "rev_series": [19.5, 30.9, 35.9, 38.8, 43.2, 51.1], "np_series": [1.2, 1.4, 1.3, 1.1, 1.3, 1.0], "roe_series": [15.9, 11.4, 9.4, 6.4, 6.3, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 56.8, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.0, "gm_median": 21.2, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 3.0, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.6, "fix_assets": 0.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.85, "capex_dep": 4.75, "interest_debt": 3.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 29.7, "debt_mv": 4.9, "payout": 21.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.5, "np_cagr3": -6.9, "rev_yoy": 24.6, "np_yoy": -29.4, "np_vol": 13.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["数字化通用技术服务", 36.0], ["数字化创新技术服务", 14.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.4, "ret_prev2_year": 91.8, "ret_ytd": -29.4, "ret_pivot": -10.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.0, "ret_60": -19.9, "ret_120": -23.6, "ret_250": -41.6, "mdd_250": -51.6, "vol_250": 44.1, "pos_52w": 53.7}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 45, "hard": 1, "bondness": 25}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 73.4 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 1%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 4.75 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 73.4 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -20% / -24%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "法本信息:PE 比行业中位低 9.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 27.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.2个百分点。"]}}