{"F": {"ts_code": "300922.SZ", "name": "天秦装备", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "sw3": "地面兵装Ⅲ", "ind": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20201225", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.46, "pe_ttm": 89.5302, "pb": 3.1682, "dv_ttm": 1.0277, "total_mv": 313018.7704, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.5, 40.6, 30.2, 38.0, 35.4, 35.0], "rev_series": [2.3, 2.4, 1.5, 1.5, 2.3, 2.3], "np_series": [0.6, 0.8, 0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [10.7, 9.4, 3.1, 3.7, 4.7, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.8, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 35.4, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -11.3, "npm_median": 18.2, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.4, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 3.17, "capex_dep": 7.27, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 14.2, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 71.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.2, "np_cagr3": 16.3, "rev_yoy": -50.6, "np_yoy": -45.1, "np_vol": 35.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["专用防护装置", 48.0], ["装备零部件", 1.0], ["技术服务及其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 62.3, "ret_prev2_year": -15.5, "ret_ytd": -14.2, "ret_pivot": 73.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.7, "ret_60": -17.4, "ret_120": -6.1, "ret_250": -29.7, "mdd_250": -51.4, "vol_250": 57.7, "pos_52w": 68.3}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 53, "hard": 60, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 89.5 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 35.4%、固定资产占比 37%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 37%、毛利率 35.4% 两条都占,但所在行业(国防军工)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.4%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 7.27 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 89.5 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / -17% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「地面兵装Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 107.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 28.6% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 42%。", "天秦装备:PE 比行业中位低 17.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.8个百分点。"]}}