{"F": {"ts_code": "300920.SZ", "name": "润阳科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "其他塑料制品", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20201225", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.83, "pe_ttm": 301.38, "pb": 3.8494, "dv_ttm": 0.2209, "total_mv": 452790.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.8, 34.6, 20.9, 24.1, 20.7, 23.6], "rev_series": [4.3, 5.0, 3.9, 3.6, 4.1, 4.2], "np_series": [1.3, 0.9, 0.3, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [16.8, 7.8, 2.9, 3.7, 2.2, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.1, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 23.6, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -23.9, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.5, "fix_assets": 6.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.85, "capex_dep": 1.94, "interest_debt": 2.7, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 24.6, "debt_mv": 6.0, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 2.7, "np_cagr3": -6.9, "rev_yoy": -6.3, "np_yoy": -79.4, "np_vol": 31.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["销售商品", 33.0], ["IXPE", 32.0], ["合计特别调整", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 174.9, "ret_prev2_year": -19.0, "ret_ytd": -1.5, "ret_pivot": 261.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.8, "ret_60": -9.4, "ret_120": 13.2, "ret_250": -22.3, "mdd_250": -38.4, "vol_250": 51.4, "pos_52w": 82.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 62, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 301.4 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.6%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.6%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.6%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -23.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.94 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 301.4 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -9% / 13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "润阳科技:PE 比行业中位高 260.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.6个百分点。"]}}