{"F": {"ts_code": "300919.SZ", "name": "中伟新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20201223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 39.4, "pe_ttm": 19.2534, "pb": 1.7521, "dv_ttm": 1.618, "total_mv": 4115196.8753, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.1, 11.5, 11.5, 13.9, 12.1, 12.3], "rev_series": [74.4, 200.7, 303.4, 342.7, 402.2, 481.4], "np_series": [4.2, 9.4, 15.4, 19.5, 14.7, 15.7], "roe_series": [14.1, 13.7, 11.7, 10.7, 7.3, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 604.0, "np_ttm": 21.4, "ocf_ttm": 14.9, "fcf_ttm": -18.9, "fcf_yield": -4.6, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 12.1, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 4.7, "roe_median": 10.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.5, "fix_assets": 282.3, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 1.7, "capex_dep": 1.56, "interest_debt": 318.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 61.8, "debt_mv": 77.3, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.6, "np_cagr3": 0.5, "rev_yoy": 57.5, "np_yoy": 77.8, "np_vol": 51.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 14.4, "fwd_pe2": 11.8, "fwd_g1": 34.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 31.0], ["电池材料", 16.0], ["镍矿产品", 12.0], ["电池材料：镍系材料", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.9, "ret_prev2_year": 6.5, "ret_ytd": -14.3, "ret_pivot": 50.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.9, "ret_60": -13.7, "ret_120": -26.5, "ret_250": 11.7, "mdd_250": -43.7, "vol_250": 51.1, "pos_52w": 60.6}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 45, "hard": 50, "bondness": 41}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.1%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.56 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.3 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 12%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -14% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "中伟新材:PE 比行业中位低 16.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点。"]}}