{"F": {"ts_code": "300909.SZ", "name": "汇创达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "面板", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20201118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 55.76, "pe_ttm": 1039.883, "pb": 4.7953, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 964497.448, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.3, 34.6, 31.8, 25.5, 27.2, 25.3], "rev_series": [6.1, 8.3, 8.3, 13.6, 14.7, 14.9], "np_series": [0.9, 1.5, 1.3, 0.9, 1.0, 0.1], "roe_series": [12.8, 12.4, 9.7, 5.7, 5.1, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.1, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -1.7, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 27.2, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 6.7, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.0, "fix_assets": 14.7, "goodwill_ratio": 3.7, "pb_calc": 4.8, "capex_dep": 4.79, "interest_debt": 7.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.5, "debt_ratio": 41.9, "debt_mv": 7.7, "payout": 33.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 21.6, "np_cagr3": -51.4, "rev_yoy": 17.2, "np_yoy": -16.8, "np_vol": 46.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["信号传输元器件及组件", 22.0], ["导光结构件及组件", 9.0], ["新能源结构组件", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 103.6, "ret_prev2_year": -23.1, "ret_ytd": 15.9, "ret_pivot": 206.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.2, "ret_60": 23.9, "ret_120": 34.8, "ret_250": 67.7, "mdd_250": -40.1, "vol_250": 57.1, "pos_52w": 87.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 67, "bondness": 22}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 1039.9 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%、固定资产占比 42%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 4.79 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1039.9 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 68%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 24% / 35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "汇创达:PE 比行业中位高 978.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.6个百分点。"]}}