{"F": {"ts_code": "300908.SZ", "name": "仲景食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "sw3": "调味发酵品Ⅲ", "ind": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20201123", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.57, "pe_ttm": 18.7047, "pb": 2.1204, "dv_ttm": 3.9108, "total_mv": 373322.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.3, 39.0, 36.9, 41.6, 41.7, 44.2], "rev_series": [7.3, 8.1, 8.8, 9.9, 11.0, 10.8], "np_series": [1.3, 1.2, 1.3, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9], "roe_series": [13.3, 7.9, 8.0, 10.5, 10.3, 10.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.2, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 4.0, "ocf_yield": 6.1, "gm_median": 41.6, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 16.0, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.3, "fix_assets": 7.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.12, "capex_dep": 1.59, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 12.5, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 76.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.1, "np_cagr3": 15.0, "rev_yoy": 8.0, "np_yoy": 7.7, "np_vol": 14.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.3, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 18.6, "fwd_pe2": 17.5, "fwd_g1": 1.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 3.1, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["调味食品", 56.0], ["调味配料", 43.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.7, "ret_prev2_year": 13.1, "ret_ytd": -4.2, "ret_pivot": 26.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.3, "ret_60": 7.9, "ret_120": -3.9, "ret_250": -18.8, "mdd_250": -31.3, "vol_250": 26.4, "pos_52w": 79.9}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 58, "hard": 63, "bondness": 63}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 8 亿,占总资产 39%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 41.6%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 4.0%,股息率 3.9%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 73%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 39%)和定价权(毛利率 41.6% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.0%(经营现金流/市值 6.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.6%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 1.59 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.7 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 8% / -4%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「调味发酵品Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 34.4% / 固定资产占比 39% / 分红率 67%。", "仲景食品:PE 比行业中位低 8.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点。"]}}