{"F": {"ts_code": "300904.SZ", "name": "威力传动", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230809", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 41.09, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.3064, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 297422.7003, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.4, 24.6, 23.1, 22.0, 8.3, 11.1], "rev_series": [5.0, 6.4, 6.2, 5.5, 3.5, 8.8], "np_series": [0.8, 0.6, 0.7, 0.4, -0.3, -0.9], "roe_series": [93.7, 34.9, 27.9, 7.4, -3.7, -13.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.3, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_ttm": -5.7, "fcf_yield": -19.0, "ocf_yield": -4.3, "gm_median": 22.0, "gm_std": 6.7, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": -5.3, "npm_median": 7.4, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.9, "fix_assets": 19.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.31, "capex_dep": 9.01, "interest_debt": 21.0, "debt_ebitda": 151.2, "debt_ratio": 83.9, "debt_mv": 70.5, "payout": 148.5, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 12.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 72.0, "np_yoy": -19.4, "np_vol": 89.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["风电齿轮箱", 96.0], ["其他收入", 2.0], ["其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.1, "ret_prev2_year": -4.4, "ret_ytd": -34.4, "ret_pivot": 16.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.2, "ret_60": -8.1, "ret_120": -40.1, "ret_250": -38.7, "mdd_250": -62.8, "vol_250": 50.3, "pos_52w": 43.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 91, "bondness": 58}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 84%,有息负债 21 亿,经营现金流/市值 -4.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 57%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.0%,稳定度 69%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -19.0%(经营现金流/市值 -4.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.0%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 9.01 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -8% / -40%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "威力传动:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.6个百分点。"]}}