{"F": {"ts_code": "300899.SZ", "name": "上海凯鑫", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20201016", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.18, "pe_ttm": 338.7844, "pb": 3.1367, "dv_ttm": 1.8922, "total_mv": 198876.6412, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.1, 37.3, 39.7, 36.8, 23.5, 34.1], "rev_series": [1.9, 2.3, 1.5, 1.2, 0.8, 2.1], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.3, 0.2, -0.0, 0.3], "roe_series": [10.4, 7.6, 4.2, 2.4, -0.3, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.9, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 36.8, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 1.6, "npm_median": 13.0, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.0, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.14, "capex_dep": 5.15, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 9.9, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 142.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 10.6, "np_cagr3": -0.2, "rev_yoy": -16.2, "np_yoy": -67.5, "np_vol": 721.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["工业流体分离解决方案", 42.0], ["零部件及耗材", 8.0], ["租赁收入", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.3, "ret_prev2_year": -23.2, "ret_ytd": -3.5, "ret_pivot": 90.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.6, "ret_60": 4.0, "ret_120": -24.9, "ret_250": 19.1, "mdd_250": -44.9, "vol_250": 43.9, "pos_52w": 72.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 57, "hard": 10, "bondness": 57}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 338.8 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.8%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 5.15 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 338.8 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 19%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 4% / -25%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "上海凯鑫:PE 比行业中位高 312.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.9个百分点。"]}}