{"F": {"ts_code": "300898.SZ", "name": "熊猫乳品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "乳品", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20201016", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.69, "pe_ttm": 25.0705, "pb": 2.5969, "dv_ttm": 2.9, "total_mv": 256556.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.7, 23.5, 19.3, 23.1, 28.4, 25.6], "rev_series": [6.8, 8.6, 8.9, 9.5, 7.6, 8.1], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 0.5, 1.1, 1.0, 1.1], "roe_series": [12.8, 9.7, 6.3, 12.1, 10.6, 10.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.7, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 23.5, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -5.5, "npm_median": 11.2, "roe_median": 10.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.3, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 4.1, "pb_calc": 2.6, "capex_dep": 1.29, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 9.1, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 68.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.1, "np_cagr3": 26.5, "rev_yoy": 16.0, "np_yoy": -13.7, "np_vol": 46.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 20.3, "fwd_pe2": 17.2, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.13, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["浓缩乳制品", 35.0], ["贸易乳品", 6.0], ["乳品贸易", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.4, "ret_prev2_year": 9.1, "ret_ytd": -21.4, "ret_pivot": 43.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": 4.4, "ret_120": -15.4, "ret_250": -28.3, "mdd_250": -41.4, "vol_250": 36.3, "pos_52w": 68.1}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 46, "hard": 42, "bondness": 62}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.1 倍、股息率 2.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.5%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.5%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 1.29 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.1 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 4% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "熊猫乳品:PE 比行业中位低 3.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点。"]}}