{"F": {"ts_code": "300897.SZ", "name": "山科智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.12, "pe_ttm": 751.024, "pb": 3.2454, "dv_ttm": 0.2202, "total_mv": 315704.2356, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.0, 45.1, 41.4, 43.3, 41.5, 35.1], "rev_series": [3.8, 4.8, 5.6, 6.6, 6.6, 5.8], "np_series": [0.7, 0.9, 0.8, 0.9, 0.8, 0.2], "roe_series": [12.3, 10.3, 8.9, 9.7, 8.3, 1.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.8, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 41.5, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -5.5, "npm_median": 14.2, "roe_median": 8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.3, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 3.25, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.9, "debt_ratio": 28.1, "debt_mv": 2.7, "payout": 38.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.1, "np_cagr3": -39.7, "rev_yoy": 0.8, "np_yoy": -63.1, "np_vol": 36.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["智能远传水表类产品", 26.0], ["智能远传水表及计量传感器", 26.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 49.1, "ret_prev2_year": 8.7, "ret_ytd": -12.1, "ret_pivot": 91.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.6, "ret_60": 1.9, "ret_120": -12.8, "ret_250": -26.9, "mdd_250": -47.6, "vol_250": 57.7, "pos_52w": 69.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 57, "hard": 21, "bondness": 48}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 751.0 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.5%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.5%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 751.0 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 2% / -13%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "山科智能:PE 比行业中位高 700.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.5个百分点。"]}}