{"F": {"ts_code": "300895.SZ", "name": "铜牛信息", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200924", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 56.13, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 10.8844, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 790313.7678, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.1, 30.4, 16.2, 13.1, 0.9, 1.4], "rev_series": [3.1, 3.0, 4.4, 2.8, 2.8, 2.6], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, -0.7, -1.2, -1.3, -0.8], "roe_series": [5.8, 4.3, -5.8, -11.6, -14.0, -9.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.6, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 13.1, "gm_std": 10.9, "gm_stab": 0.17, "gm_chg_2022": -14.0, "npm_median": -31.1, "roe_median": -9.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.6, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.88, "capex_dep": 0.08, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 16.3, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -16.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.4, "np_yoy": -2.7, "np_vol": 95.7, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 1403.2, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["IDC及增值服务", 51.0], ["其他互联网综合服务", 21.0], ["IDC及云平台信息系统集成服务", 14.0], ["IDC及云平台信息系统集成", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.0, "ret_prev2_year": 6.8, "ret_ytd": 27.1, "ret_pivot": 114.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.5, "ret_60": 7.2, "ret_120": -2.9, "ret_250": 2.4, "mdd_250": -45.4, "vol_250": 67.9, "pos_52w": 69.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 16, "hard": 30, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 16%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 17%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.08 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 7% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "铜牛信息:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.0个百分点。"]}}