{"F": {"ts_code": "300893.SZ", "name": "松原安全", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200924", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.36, "pe_ttm": 20.6335, "pb": 3.1958, "dv_ttm": 0.5432, "total_mv": 679229.7232, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.4, 33.1, 28.4, 31.5, 28.7, 28.5], "rev_series": [5.4, 7.5, 9.9, 12.8, 19.7, 26.8], "np_series": [0.9, 1.1, 1.2, 2.0, 2.6, 3.7], "roe_series": [16.7, 15.0, 14.3, 20.4, 21.6, 21.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.2, "np_ttm": 3.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -6.4, "fcf_yield": -9.4, "ocf_yield": -1.1, "gm_median": 28.7, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -6.1, "npm_median": 13.7, "roe_median": 20.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.0, "fix_assets": 18.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.2, "capex_dep": 4.77, "interest_debt": 14.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 52.9, "debt_mv": 21.5, "payout": 17.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 39.2, "np_cagr3": 45.9, "rev_yoy": 21.0, "np_yoy": -23.0, "np_vol": 20.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 13.7, "fwd_pe2": 10.4, "fwd_g1": 51.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 0.44, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车安全带总成", 53.0], ["汽车安全气囊", 27.0], ["汽车方向盘", 18.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.2, "ret_prev2_year": 0.5, "ret_ytd": -39.1, "ret_pivot": 6.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.3, "ret_60": -27.5, "ret_120": -33.8, "ret_250": -37.0, "mdd_250": -51.0, "vol_250": 43.3, "pos_52w": 50.5}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 51, "hard": 64, "bondness": 17}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 20.6 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.7%、固定资产占比 40%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.7%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 4.77 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.6 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -28% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "松原安全:PE 比行业中位低 9.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.5个百分点。"]}}