{"F": {"ts_code": "300891.SZ", "name": "惠云钛业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "钛白粉", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200917", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.5, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.4508, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 300006.33, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.1, 23.7, 8.4, 9.2, 7.7, 5.9], "rev_series": [9.5, 15.5, 15.1, 16.5, 16.6, 17.4], "np_series": [0.9, 2.0, 0.1, 0.4, 0.0, -0.6], "roe_series": [9.5, 16.1, 1.1, 3.0, 0.3, -4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.3, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 6.4, "ocf_yield": 12.8, "gm_median": 8.4, "gm_std": 6.5, "gm_stab": 0.23, "gm_chg_2022": -11.7, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.7, "fix_assets": 16.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.32, "capex_dep": 1.59, "interest_debt": 13.0, "debt_ebitda": 10.6, "debt_ratio": 59.1, "debt_mv": 43.2, "payout": 65.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 4.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 11.6, "np_yoy": 46.2, "np_vol": 629.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["金红石型钛白粉", 37.0], ["其他产品", 8.0], ["其他主营业务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.8, "ret_prev2_year": -15.5, "ret_ytd": -14.8, "ret_pivot": 9.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.8, "ret_60": 13.8, "ret_120": -28.2, "ret_250": -29.6, "mdd_250": -44.9, "vol_250": 40.2, "pos_52w": 70.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 16, "hard": 81, "bondness": 53}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 51%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 8.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 10.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 51%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%,稳定度 23%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.4%(经营现金流/市值 12.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%,稳定度 23%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 1.59 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 14% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "惠云钛业:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点。"]}}