{"F": {"ts_code": "300886.SZ", "name": "华业香料", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200916", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.4, "pe_ttm": 109.4942, "pb": 2.9316, "dv_ttm": 0.4255, "total_mv": 175776.354, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.1, 22.5, 22.4, 17.0, 23.9, 24.9], "rev_series": [2.1, 2.5, 2.5, 2.7, 3.5, 3.7], "np_series": [0.4, 0.2, 0.2, -0.0, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [10.5, 3.4, 3.9, -0.7, 4.0, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.1, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -2.9, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 22.5, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -7.6, "npm_median": 7.1, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.6, "fix_assets": 3.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.93, "capex_dep": 5.02, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 21.7, "debt_mv": 3.9, "payout": 29.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 13.5, "np_cagr3": 13.3, "rev_yoy": 17.2, "np_yoy": -67.5, "np_vol": 281.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["丙未内酯", 42.0], ["丙位内酯", 42.0], ["其他业务", 6.0], ["丁位内酯", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.1, "ret_prev2_year": -24.3, "ret_ytd": -9.5, "ret_pivot": 39.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.0, "ret_60": 2.4, "ret_120": -21.9, "ret_250": -31.4, "mdd_250": -43.2, "vol_250": 38.8, "pos_52w": 70.1}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 46, "hard": 68, "bondness": 24}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 109.5 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%、固定资产占比 43%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 5.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 109.5 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 2% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "华业香料:PE 比行业中位高 73.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点。"]}}