{"F": {"ts_code": "300885.SZ", "name": "海昌新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200910", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.39, "pe_ttm": 70.3108, "pb": 5.2632, "dv_ttm": 0.4157, "total_mv": 481166.3402, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.5, 39.0, 33.5, 29.3, 34.6, 33.0], "rev_series": [2.2, 3.1, 2.2, 2.2, 3.0, 2.7], "np_series": [0.6, 0.8, 0.6, 0.5, 0.7, 0.6], "roe_series": [12.4, 11.7, 7.5, 5.7, 8.4, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.0, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 33.5, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -10.0, "npm_median": 23.9, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.6, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 16.5, "pb_calc": 5.26, "capex_dep": 1.31, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 14.9, "debt_mv": 1.4, "payout": 42.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 6.7, "np_cagr3": -1.2, "rev_yoy": 98.6, "np_yoy": 43.0, "np_vol": 34.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电动工具零部件", 23.0], ["GNSS高精度定位天线及泛射频核心部件", 21.0], ["办公、家电零部件", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 212.1, "ret_prev2_year": 5.3, "ret_ytd": -42.5, "ret_pivot": 153.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.9, "ret_60": -21.2, "ret_120": -15.7, "ret_250": -30.4, "mdd_250": -48.5, "vol_250": 67.9, "pos_52w": 54.8}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 52, "hard": 20, "bondness": 32}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 70.3 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.5%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.5%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 1.31 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 70.3 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -21% / -16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "海昌新材:PE 比行业中位高 19.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.2个百分点。"]}}