{"F": {"ts_code": "300884.SZ", "name": "狄耐克", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "安防设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20201112", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.12, "pe_ttm": 75.8239, "pb": 2.5866, "dv_ttm": 0.7473, "total_mv": 333068.1248, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.3, 34.7, 41.0, 44.1, 42.6, 37.5], "rev_series": [7.8, 9.4, 8.4, 8.8, 7.2, 6.6], "np_series": [1.5, 1.0, 0.8, 1.0, -0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [19.3, 8.3, 6.1, 7.5, -1.0, 0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.9, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": -1.2, "gm_median": 41.0, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": 9.5, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.4, "fix_assets": 2.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.59, "capex_dep": 1.39, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 27.8, "debt_mv": 2.3, "payout": 136.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.8, "np_cagr3": -47.3, "rev_yoy": 10.9, "np_yoy": 1443.9, "np_vol": 101.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["楼宇对讲产品", 25.0], ["智能家居产品", 14.0], ["智慧病房及门诊", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.7, "ret_prev2_year": -11.9, "ret_ytd": -10.7, "ret_pivot": 40.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.4, "ret_60": 27.6, "ret_120": -10.7, "ret_250": -10.3, "mdd_250": -47.4, "vol_250": 47.8, "pos_52w": 72.6}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 58, "hard": 20, "bondness": 62}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 75.8 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.0%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 -1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.0%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.39 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 75.8 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 28% / -11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "狄耐克:PE 比行业中位高 24.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}