{"F": {"ts_code": "300883.SZ", "name": "龙利得", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "纸包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200910", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.71, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.6451, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 232166.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.3, 19.7, 18.8, 15.1, 13.9, 14.2], "rev_series": [7.1, 7.6, 6.4, 7.1, 8.2, 8.8], "np_series": [0.7, 0.5, 0.3, -0.1, -0.0, -0.1], "roe_series": [5.7, 3.7, 2.2, -0.5, -0.3, -0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.1, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -2.2, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 15.1, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": -0.3, "roe_median": -0.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.8, "fix_assets": 10.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.65, "capex_dep": 1.38, "interest_debt": 9.9, "debt_ebitda": 9.0, "debt_ratio": 45.4, "debt_mv": 42.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.7, "np_yoy": -383.1, "np_vol": 61.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["瓦楞包装", 75.0], ["环保纸袋", 7.0], ["快消包装", 7.0], ["彩盒包装", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.9, "ret_prev2_year": -27.0, "ret_ytd": -0.6, "ret_pivot": 67.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.7, "ret_60": 5.3, "ret_120": -5.8, "ret_250": -0.1, "mdd_250": -36.4, "vol_250": 31.9, "pos_52w": 86.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 64, "bondness": 24}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 40%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 9.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 1.38 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 5% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "龙利得:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.0个百分点。"]}}