{"F": {"ts_code": "300882.SZ", "name": "万胜智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电工仪器仪表", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200910", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.17, "pe_ttm": 51.1061, "pb": 3.2044, "dv_ttm": 1.4114, "total_mv": 405547.1004, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.4, 29.8, 33.9, 36.8, 32.9, 24.6], "rev_series": [5.7, 5.5, 8.4, 11.2, 9.4, 14.0], "np_series": [0.9, 0.7, 1.4, 2.5, 1.2, 1.2], "roe_series": [14.6, 7.9, 15.1, 23.6, 10.2, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.7, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 5.5, "gm_median": 32.9, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 2.5, "npm_median": 12.7, "roe_median": 10.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.9, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 3.2, "capex_dep": 2.66, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 35.3, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 46.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.4, "np_cagr3": -3.3, "rev_yoy": 12.0, "np_yoy": -44.3, "np_vol": 62.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["智慧计量板块收入", 26.0], ["智慧计量板块", 26.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.5, "ret_prev2_year": -5.3, "ret_ytd": -23.8, "ret_pivot": 18.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.3, "ret_60": -4.8, "ret_120": -39.4, "ret_250": -16.9, "mdd_250": -48.6, "vol_250": 50.5, "pos_52w": 54.7}, "S": {"duration": 72, "pricing": 56, "hard": 24, "bondness": 27}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 51.1 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 32.9%、固定资产占比 15%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.9%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.9%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 2.66 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 51.1 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -5% / -39%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "万胜智能:PE 比行业中位高 7.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.4个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}