{"F": {"ts_code": "300881.SZ", "name": "盛德鑫泰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "特钢Ⅱ", "sw3": "特钢Ⅲ", "ind": "特钢Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200901", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.75, "pe_ttm": 15.6099, "pb": 2.7822, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 349250.3175, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.9, 11.0, 12.9, 14.1, 17.9, 15.7], "rev_series": [8.8, 11.2, 12.1, 19.8, 26.6, 31.5], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.7, 1.2, 2.3, 2.5], "roe_series": [9.4, 6.9, 9.1, 13.7, 22.8, 22.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.1, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.4, "fcf_yield": -7.0, "ocf_yield": -5.3, "gm_median": 14.1, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -0.0, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 13.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.3, "fix_assets": 7.2, "goodwill_ratio": 2.8, "pb_calc": 2.62, "capex_dep": 0.79, "interest_debt": 12.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 63.9, "debt_mv": 34.8, "payout": 49.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 37.7, "np_cagr3": 50.0, "rev_yoy": 10.6, "np_yoy": -28.7, "np_vol": 32.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 14.4, "fwd_pe2": 13.1, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 1.44, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["无缝钢管", 62.0], ["汽车零配件", 13.0], ["汽车配件", 13.0], ["钢格板类产品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.9, "ret_prev2_year": 23.8, "ret_ytd": -6.2, "ret_pivot": 42.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.0, "ret_60": -19.9, "ret_120": -31.9, "ret_250": -16.6, "mdd_250": -45.3, "vol_250": 48.9, "pos_52w": 56.9}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 44, "hard": 29, "bondness": 29}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 15.6 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 14.1%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.0%(经营现金流/市值 -5.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.1%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.79 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.6 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -20% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「特钢Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 15.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 11.3% / 固定资产占比 37% / 分红率 50%。", "盛德鑫泰:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 19.1个百分点。"]}}