{"F": {"ts_code": "300880.SZ", "name": "迦南智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电工仪器仪表", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200901", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.24, "pe_ttm": 83.7938, "pb": 3.8893, "dv_ttm": 0.7062, "total_mv": 414471.6252, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.5, 29.0, 32.2, 28.6, 31.3, 26.8], "rev_series": [5.1, 6.7, 8.0, 9.1, 10.1, 6.4], "np_series": [0.8, 1.1, 1.4, 1.5, 1.9, 0.8], "roe_series": [17.0, 15.5, 17.8, 17.4, 19.4, 7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.8, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 29.0, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 6.6, "npm_median": 16.9, "roe_median": 17.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.3, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.89, "capex_dep": 4.7, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 31.4, "debt_mv": 2.4, "payout": 37.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.5, "np_cagr3": -16.7, "rev_yoy": -14.3, "np_yoy": -47.4, "np_vol": 34.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["智慧计量及系统", 27.0], ["智慧计量与采集系统", 27.0], ["配电设备及配件", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -19.3, "ret_prev2_year": 13.6, "ret_ytd": 21.9, "ret_pivot": 26.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.9, "ret_60": -9.6, "ret_120": -8.6, "ret_250": 3.1, "mdd_250": -37.8, "vol_250": 50.0, "pos_52w": 76.9}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 58, "hard": 31, "bondness": 41}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 83.8 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 4.70 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 83.8 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / -10% / -9%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "迦南智能:PE 比行业中位高 40.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点。"]}}