{"F": {"ts_code": "300877.SZ", "name": "金春股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "纺织制造", "sw3": "其他纺织", "ind": "纺织制造", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200824", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.28, "pe_ttm": 30.8146, "pb": 1.8974, "dv_ttm": 0.9643, "total_mv": 315360.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.7, 12.1, 4.2, 6.8, 8.0, 10.7], "rev_series": [10.9, 8.9, 8.1, 9.0, 10.3, 10.9], "np_series": [2.8, 0.9, -0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.9], "roe_series": [26.1, 5.5, -1.6, 1.9, 1.9, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.1, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 6.1, "ocf_yield": 6.6, "gm_median": 8.0, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.65, "gm_chg_2022": -31.4, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 1.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.3, "fix_assets": 5.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.9, "capex_dep": 0.24, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 13.9, "debt_mv": 5.2, "payout": 36.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 10.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 20.3, "np_yoy": 98.8, "np_vol": 136.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["非织造布", 33.0], ["化学纤维", 9.0], ["ES纤维", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 111.9, "ret_prev2_year": -18.8, "ret_ytd": -9.4, "ret_pivot": 163.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.7, "ret_60": -2.8, "ret_120": -14.8, "ret_250": -0.2, "mdd_250": -40.5, "vol_250": 64.6, "pos_52w": 72.3}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 30, "hard": 44, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 30.8 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.1%(经营现金流/市值 6.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%,稳定度 65%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -31.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 0.24 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.8 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -3% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「纺织制造」33 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 46%。", "金春股份:PE 比行业中位高 7.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}