{"F": {"ts_code": "300876.SZ", "name": "蒙泰高新", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "其他化学纤维", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200824", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.51, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.3284, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 235810.3176, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.8, 23.1, 21.5, 18.5, 7.7, 3.0], "rev_series": [3.7, 4.0, 3.9, 4.5, 4.9, 5.2], "np_series": [0.8, 0.7, 0.5, 0.2, -0.6, -0.6], "roe_series": [15.9, 8.8, 5.8, 2.4, -7.6, -6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.3, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_yield": -11.2, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 18.5, "gm_std": 8.0, "gm_stab": 0.57, "gm_chg_2022": -9.3, "npm_median": 4.3, "roe_median": 2.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 59.3, "fix_assets": 11.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.33, "capex_dep": 7.74, "interest_debt": 5.8, "debt_ebitda": 24.3, "debt_ratio": 40.5, "debt_mv": 24.5, "payout": 89.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 9.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 5.4, "np_yoy": 50.6, "np_vol": 152.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["常规丙纶长丝", 48.0], ["差别化丙纶长丝", 47.0], ["锦纶丝", 4.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.7, "ret_prev2_year": 10.4, "ret_ytd": -38.4, "ret_pivot": 58.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.2, "ret_60": -8.5, "ret_120": -24.9, "ret_250": -30.4, "mdd_250": -55.2, "vol_250": 45.3, "pos_52w": 55.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 33, "hard": 95, "bondness": 57}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 59%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 24.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 59%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 57%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 57%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 59%,资本开支/折旧 7.74 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -8% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "蒙泰高新:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.7个百分点。"]}}