{"F": {"ts_code": "300873.SZ", "name": "海晨股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "中间产品及消费品供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200824", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.47, "pe_ttm": 33.0296, "pb": 1.5727, "dv_ttm": 1.5167, "total_mv": 498516.2637, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.5, 28.8, 25.1, 22.6, 25.1, 25.9], "rev_series": [10.7, 14.7, 18.0, 18.3, 16.5, 19.0], "np_series": [1.9, 3.1, 3.6, 2.8, 2.9, 2.6], "roe_series": [16.1, 16.2, 15.3, 10.2, 10.0, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.4, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 6.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 12.0, "gm_median": 25.1, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -6.3, "npm_median": 18.6, "roe_median": 10.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.3, "fix_assets": 20.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 1.57, "capex_dep": 7.11, "interest_debt": 10.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 40.5, "debt_mv": 20.9, "payout": 31.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.8, "np_cagr3": -9.6, "rev_yoy": 16.1, "np_yoy": -87.4, "np_vol": 27.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 10.9, "fwd_pe2": 9.5, "fwd_g1": 204.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 0.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["仓储服务", 18.0], ["货运代理服务", 16.0], ["货运代理", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.7, "ret_prev2_year": -28.7, "ret_ytd": 0.1, "ret_pivot": 68.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.2, "ret_60": -1.6, "ret_120": -13.6, "ret_250": -9.0, "mdd_250": -55.7, "vol_250": 59.6, "pos_52w": 49.9}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 48, "hard": 58, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 33.0 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%、固定资产占比 36%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 12.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 7.11 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.0 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -2% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "海晨股份:PE 比行业中位高 11.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.7个百分点。"]}}