{"F": {"ts_code": "300867.SZ", "name": "圣元环保", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "固废治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200824", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.26, "pe_ttm": 14.2166, "pb": 1.1476, "dv_ttm": 0.533, "total_mv": 469024.966, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [51.6, 31.2, 29.9, 31.4, 40.2, 43.3], "rev_series": [10.3, 23.0, 17.5, 17.5, 15.8, 15.6], "np_series": [3.0, 4.7, 1.8, 1.5, 1.8, 2.5], "roe_series": [15.4, 15.9, 5.5, 4.3, 5.1, 6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.0, "np_ttm": 3.3, "ocf_ttm": 8.4, "fcf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_yield": 8.6, "ocf_yield": 18.0, "gm_median": 31.4, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -21.7, "npm_median": 11.6, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.1, "fix_assets": 10.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.15, "capex_dep": 12.0, "interest_debt": 39.1, "debt_ebitda": 4.6, "debt_ratio": 54.7, "debt_mv": 83.4, "payout": 10.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.9, "np_cagr3": 11.3, "rev_yoy": 6.2, "np_yoy": 71.2, "np_vol": 42.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 65.0, "earn_yield": 7.0, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 11.7, "fwd_pe2": 9.8, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 0.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["垃圾焚烧收入(含售电、售热、售蒸汽)", 27.0], ["垃圾焚烧", 27.0], ["其他收入", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 48.5, "ret_prev2_year": -18.8, "ret_ytd": -9.0, "ret_pivot": 58.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.9, "ret_60": -8.9, "ret_120": -9.8, "ret_250": -5.9, "mdd_250": -38.8, "vol_250": 47.4, "pos_52w": 70.1}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 48, "hard": 18, "bondness": 41}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 71%,PE TTM 14.2 倍 但前瞻 PE 11.7 倍,PEG 0.62。", "自由现金流 4.0 亿(正),次年预期增速 19%(4 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.6%(经营现金流/市值 18.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -21.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 12.00 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.2 倍 粗算,约 65%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -9% / -10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "圣元环保:PE 比行业中位低 11.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}