{"F": {"ts_code": "300863.SZ", "name": "卡倍亿", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200824", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 40.5, "pe_ttm": 76.7351, "pb": 7.3017, "dv_ttm": 0.3459, "total_mv": 1058695.11, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.0, 10.9, 12.0, 12.4, 12.4, 10.4], "rev_series": [12.6, 22.7, 29.5, 34.5, 36.5, 40.4], "np_series": [0.5, 0.9, 1.4, 1.7, 1.6, 1.2], "roe_series": [11.9, 13.9, 19.3, 16.6, 12.7, 8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 44.5, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": -4.7, "fcf_ttm": -12.1, "fcf_yield": -11.5, "ocf_yield": -4.4, "gm_median": 12.0, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": 4.4, "roe_median": 13.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.9, "fix_assets": 16.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.3, "capex_dep": 7.53, "interest_debt": 33.1, "debt_ebitda": 11.2, "debt_ratio": 71.2, "debt_mv": 31.3, "payout": 26.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.1, "np_cagr3": -5.2, "rev_yoy": 22.1, "np_yoy": 20.3, "np_vol": 35.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 34.0, "fwd_pe2": 31.8, "fwd_g1": 125.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 4.86, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["普通线", 30.0], ["普通电线", 30.0], ["新能源线", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 59.3, "ret_prev2_year": 26.8, "ret_ytd": 12.9, "ret_pivot": 90.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.4, "ret_60": -38.1, "ret_120": 8.4, "ret_250": 41.9, "mdd_250": -58.0, "vol_250": 62.3, "pos_52w": 52.9}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 47, "hard": 51, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 11.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.0%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.5%(经营现金流/市值 -4.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 7.53 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 76.7 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 42%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -38% / 8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "卡倍亿:PE 比行业中位高 46.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.4个百分点。"]}}