{"F": {"ts_code": "300859.SZ", "name": "西域旅游", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "自然景区", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200806", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.88, "pe_ttm": 66.6786, "pb": 6.0498, "dv_ttm": 1.0388, "total_mv": 447640.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [1.0, 44.9, 27.2, 60.0, 55.6, 47.4], "rev_series": [0.5, 1.5, 1.0, 3.1, 3.0, 3.3], "np_series": [-0.4, 0.3, -0.1, 1.1, 0.9, 0.7], "roe_series": [-8.4, 4.3, -1.5, 15.9, 11.7, 9.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.2, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 47.4, "gm_std": 11.3, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": 26.2, "npm_median": 21.8, "roe_median": 9.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.8, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.05, "capex_dep": 2.53, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 27.1, "debt_mv": 4.7, "payout": 53.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 47.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -6.1, "np_yoy": -67.2, "np_vol": 503.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 44.1, "fwd_pe2": 37.3, "fwd_g1": 51.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 2.45, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["旅游客运业务", 34.0], ["旅游客运", 34.0], ["索道运输", 8.0], ["游船收入", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.0, "ret_prev2_year": 28.6, "ret_ytd": -21.2, "ret_pivot": 4.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": -3.2, "ret_120": -21.0, "ret_250": -35.4, "mdd_250": -58.2, "vol_250": 40.2, "pos_52w": 50.9}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 62, "hard": 56, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 66.7 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 47.4%、固定资产占比 35%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 47.4%,稳定度 76%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 47.4%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 26.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 2.53 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 66.7 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -3% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "西域旅游:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.5个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}