{"F": {"ts_code": "300858.SZ", "name": "科拓生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.83, "pe_ttm": 49.8351, "pb": 2.1806, "dv_ttm": 0.6658, "total_mv": 390763.3816, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.3, 50.3, 52.0, 54.6, 58.3, 51.5], "rev_series": [3.4, 3.6, 3.7, 3.0, 3.0, 3.7], "np_series": [1.0, 1.1, 1.1, 0.9, 0.9, 0.9], "roe_series": [14.5, 11.5, 8.3, 5.5, 5.4, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.7, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 52.0, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 3.7, "npm_median": 30.0, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.7, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.18, "capex_dep": 4.81, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 11.6, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.3, "np_cagr3": -4.9, "rev_yoy": 3.8, "np_yoy": -39.1, "np_vol": 9.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 36.2, "fwd_pe2": 26.7, "fwd_g1": 38.0, "fwd_g2": 35.0, "peg": 1.03, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["食用益生菌制品", 75.0], ["动植物微生态制剂", 20.0], ["复配食品添加剂", 5.0], ["益生菌技术服务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.0, "ret_prev2_year": -25.2, "ret_ytd": -11.0, "ret_pivot": 11.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.9, "ret_60": -1.7, "ret_120": -11.5, "ret_250": -26.8, "mdd_250": -48.6, "vol_250": 46.5, "pos_52w": 58.5}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 70, "hard": 68, "bondness": 39}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 9 亿,占总资产 43%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 52.0%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.7 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -1.6%,股息率 0.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 90%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 43%)和定价权(毛利率 52.0% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.0%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 4.81 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 49.8 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -2% / -12%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "科拓生物:PE 比行业中位高 13.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 29.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.2个百分点。"]}}