{"F": {"ts_code": "300857.SZ", "name": "协创数据", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 252.9, "pe_ttm": 48.1415, "pb": 20.4169, "dv_ttm": 0.0951, "total_mv": 12375992.799, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.5, 11.6, 11.2, 13.6, 17.4, 19.2], "rev_series": [22.5, 29.6, 31.5, 46.6, 74.1, 122.4], "np_series": [1.0, 1.3, 1.3, 2.9, 6.9, 11.6], "roe_series": [11.0, 10.2, 9.6, 14.9, 24.5, 30.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 198.1, "np_ttm": 25.7, "ocf_ttm": 44.9, "fcf_ttm": -167.4, "fcf_yield": -13.5, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 13.6, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 14.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.7, "fix_assets": 229.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 20.42, "capex_dep": 12.1, "interest_debt": 244.9, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 86.8, "debt_mv": 19.8, "payout": 10.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 57.2, "np_cagr3": 107.2, "rev_yoy": 153.3, "np_yoy": 325.5, "np_vol": 52.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 29.6, "fwd_pe2": 16.2, "fwd_g1": 62.0, "fwd_g2": 83.0, "peg": 0.36, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["数据存储设备", 21.0], ["服务器及周边再制造", 14.0], ["智能算力产品及服务", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 122.1, "ret_prev2_year": 103.7, "ret_ytd": 110.3, "ret_pivot": 1009.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.3, "ret_60": 15.8, "ret_120": 43.2, "ret_250": 230.7, "mdd_250": -45.2, "vol_250": 85.9, "pos_52w": 74.0}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 41, "hard": 76, "bondness": 18}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%,稳定度 77%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 12.10 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.1 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 231%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 86%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 16% / 43%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "协创数据:PE 比行业中位高 1.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.9个百分点。"]}}