{"F": {"ts_code": "300853.SZ", "name": "申昊科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电网自动化设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200724", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.93, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 8.4584, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 410428.8363, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [59.8, 55.8, 49.7, 43.5, 12.2, 10.3], "rev_series": [6.1, 7.7, 3.9, 3.9, 1.6, 3.1], "np_series": [1.6, 1.8, -0.6, -1.0, -2.4, -1.9], "roe_series": [20.3, 14.6, -4.9, -8.1, -23.4, -25.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.8, "np_ttm": -1.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 43.5, "gm_std": 19.2, "gm_stab": 0.56, "gm_chg_2022": -10.1, "npm_median": -26.1, "roe_median": -8.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.1, "fix_assets": 4.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.73, "capex_dep": 0.29, "interest_debt": 5.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 61.7, "debt_mv": 13.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -7.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 90.8, "np_yoy": 16.2, "np_vol": 67.5, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能监测检测及控制设备", 27.0], ["智能电网监测业务", 27.0], ["家庭储能", 16.0], ["储能", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": -17.4, "ret_prev2_year": -7.1, "ret_ytd": 34.8, "ret_pivot": 122.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.6, "ret_60": -22.1, "ret_120": 28.9, "ret_250": 5.0, "mdd_250": -50.2, "vol_250": 60.5, "pos_52w": 71.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 48, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 62%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 43.5%,稳定度 56%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.5%,稳定度 56%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.29 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -22% / 29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "申昊科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.2个百分点。"]}}