{"F": {"ts_code": "300851.SZ", "name": "交大思诺", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200717", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.02, "pe_ttm": 25.7449, "pb": 1.6124, "dv_ttm": 2.831, "total_mv": 208814.0268, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [73.3, 70.8, 69.3, 70.0, 67.9, 66.2], "rev_series": [3.6, 3.6, 2.9, 3.6, 3.4, 4.0], "np_series": [1.2, 1.0, 0.4, 0.8, 0.5, 0.7], "roe_series": [14.2, 8.1, 3.0, 6.7, 3.8, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.3, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": -2.0, "gm_median": 69.3, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 18.5, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.9, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.61, "capex_dep": 1.01, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 11.0, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 76.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.2, "np_cagr3": 26.3, "rev_yoy": 17.7, "np_yoy": 53.8, "np_vol": 70.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["应答器系统", 22.0], ["普速列控车载设备", 18.0], ["轨道电路读取器", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.8, "ret_prev2_year": -14.3, "ret_ytd": -8.0, "ret_pivot": 2.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.8, "ret_60": -1.3, "ret_120": -21.2, "ret_250": -14.8, "mdd_250": -39.4, "vol_250": 31.9, "pos_52w": 70.8}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 74, "hard": 17, "bondness": 54}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.7 倍、股息率 2.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 69.3%、固定资产占比 11%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 69.3%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 -2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 69.3%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 1.01 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.7 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -1% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "交大思诺:PE 比行业中位低 0.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 39.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点。"]}}