{"F": {"ts_code": "300850.SZ", "name": "新强联", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200713", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.84, "pe_ttm": 13.3924, "pb": 1.5242, "dv_ttm": 1.0991, "total_mv": 1111406.5556, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.4, 30.8, 27.5, 26.7, 18.5, 28.0], "rev_series": [20.6, 24.8, 26.5, 28.2, 29.5, 46.3], "np_series": [4.2, 5.1, 3.2, 3.7, 0.7, 8.2], "roe_series": [39.4, 20.8, 8.7, 8.4, 1.3, 13.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 44.9, "np_ttm": 8.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 27.5, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 13.9, "roe_median": 8.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.2, "fix_assets": 43.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.52, "capex_dep": 1.24, "interest_debt": 27.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 39.2, "debt_mv": 24.3, "payout": 13.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 20.4, "np_cagr3": 37.3, "rev_yoy": -6.2, "np_yoy": 2.9, "np_vol": 470.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 63.0, "earn_yield": 7.5, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 10.3, "fwd_pe2": 8.3, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["风电类轴承及配套产品", 42.0], ["其他轴承", 3.0], ["其他", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 119.4, "ret_prev2_year": -40.3, "ret_ytd": -34.7, "ret_pivot": 99.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.5, "ret_60": -7.4, "ret_120": -49.3, "ret_250": -27.0, "mdd_250": -58.6, "vol_250": 51.1, "pos_52w": 50.1}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 49, "hard": 56, "bondness": 17}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 13.4 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%、固定资产占比 35%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 1.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.4 倍 粗算,约 63%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -7% / -49%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "新强联:PE 比行业中位低 18.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点。"]}}