{"F": {"ts_code": "300849.SZ", "name": "锦盛新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "美容护理", "sw2": "化妆品", "sw3": "化妆品制造及其他", "ind": "化妆品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200710", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.06, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.4885, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 345900.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.6, 23.1, 8.7, 14.9, 15.6, 18.1], "rev_series": [2.6, 2.9, 2.4, 2.6, 3.3, 3.1], "np_series": [0.3, 0.1, -0.2, -0.2, -0.2, -0.5], "roe_series": [6.5, 1.5, -3.4, -3.8, -3.7, -9.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": 15.6, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": -26.9, "npm_median": -9.2, "roe_median": -3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.6, "fix_assets": 3.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.49, "capex_dep": 1.45, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 4.9, "debt_ratio": 26.5, "debt_mv": 3.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 8.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 4.2, "np_yoy": -37.4, "np_vol": 116.0, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["注塑件", 48.0], ["模具", 1.0], ["贸易类", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.2, "ret_prev2_year": 6.1, "ret_ytd": 47.5, "ret_pivot": 90.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.8, "ret_60": 0.3, "ret_120": 11.0, "ret_250": 71.3, "mdd_250": -39.2, "vol_250": 58.6, "pos_52w": 83.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 70, "bondness": 27}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -26.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.6%,稳定度 70%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.6%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -26.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 1.45 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 71%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 0% / 11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化妆品」16 家中位:PE 31.5 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 53.1% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 50%。", "锦盛新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 37.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.5个百分点。"]}}