{"F": {"ts_code": "300848.SZ", "name": "美瑞新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "聚氨酯", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200720", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.65, "pe_ttm": 72.61, "pb": 3.2425, "dv_ttm": 0.4292, "total_mv": 498489.054, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.6, 15.7, 13.6, 14.0, 12.9, 13.3], "rev_series": [7.6, 13.0, 14.8, 14.8, 16.6, 17.5], "np_series": [1.0, 1.2, 1.1, 0.9, 0.8, 0.8], "roe_series": [19.6, 14.3, 12.0, 7.8, 6.0, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.1, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_ttm": -4.3, "fcf_yield": -8.5, "ocf_yield": -1.9, "gm_median": 13.6, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -8.0, "npm_median": 6.0, "roe_median": 7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.6, "fix_assets": 22.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.24, "capex_dep": 3.08, "interest_debt": 16.7, "debt_ebitda": 8.4, "debt_ratio": 60.3, "debt_mv": 33.4, "payout": 34.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.8, "np_cagr3": -9.7, "rev_yoy": 33.2, "np_yoy": -33.9, "np_vol": 13.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["聚氨酯新材料", 38.0], ["功能化工品原料", 12.0], ["副产品及其他", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.2, "ret_prev2_year": 11.1, "ret_ytd": -26.1, "ret_pivot": -8.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.2, "ret_60": -16.0, "ret_120": -29.8, "ret_250": -32.7, "mdd_250": -39.9, "vol_250": 45.8, "pos_52w": 60.7}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 43, "hard": 81, "bondness": 44}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 51%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 8.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 51%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.5%(经营现金流/市值 -1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 3.08 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 72.6 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -16% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "美瑞新材:PE 比行业中位高 36.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.1个百分点。"]}}