{"F": {"ts_code": "300846.SZ", "name": "首都在线", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200701", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.27, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 12.7041, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 972296.5623, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.6, 21.8, 14.0, 4.3, 8.1, 13.1], "rev_series": [10.1, 12.2, 12.2, 12.4, 14.0, 12.4], "np_series": [0.4, 0.2, -1.9, -3.4, -3.0, -1.7], "roe_series": [5.9, 3.1, -20.4, -32.7, -33.7, -19.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.7, "np_ttm": -1.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 13.1, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.55, "gm_chg_2022": -9.7, "npm_median": -16.4, "roe_median": -20.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.9, "fix_assets": 8.8, "goodwill_ratio": 8.4, "pb_calc": 12.7, "capex_dep": 1.97, "interest_debt": 5.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 61.2, "debt_mv": 6.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 0.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 5.7, "np_yoy": 54.6, "np_vol": 381.2, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 321.2, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["云主机及相关服务", 33.0], ["IDC服务", 16.0], ["其他收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 64.1, "ret_prev2_year": -2.7, "ret_ytd": -15.6, "ret_pivot": 109.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.2, "ret_60": -7.9, "ret_120": -39.9, "ret_250": -21.5, "mdd_250": -54.5, "vol_250": 69.3, "pos_52w": 51.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 30, "hard": 65, "bondness": 30}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 55%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 55%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 1.97 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -8% / -40%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "首都在线:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 32.3个百分点。"]}}