{"F": {"ts_code": "300843.SZ", "name": "胜蓝股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200702", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 122.59, "pe_ttm": 127.342, "pb": 11.7649, "dv_ttm": 0.1631, "total_mv": 2006895.9184, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.4, 21.7, 21.2, 23.0, 23.9, 23.1], "rev_series": [9.1, 13.0, 11.7, 12.4, 12.9, 17.4], "np_series": [1.0, 1.0, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, 1.1], "roe_series": [15.7, 11.6, 6.0, 7.0, 7.8, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.0, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 23.0, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -5.2, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 7.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.1, "fix_assets": 8.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 11.63, "capex_dep": 4.06, "interest_debt": 5.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 46.3, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 19.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.2, "np_cagr3": 23.3, "rev_yoy": 45.9, "np_yoy": 54.4, "np_vol": 27.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 97.3, "fwd_pe2": 58.7, "fwd_g1": 31.0, "fwd_g2": 66.0, "peg": 1.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["消费类电子连接器及组件", 31.0], ["新能源汽车连接器及组件", 10.0], ["数据通讯类连接器", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 48.4, "ret_prev2_year": 53.8, "ret_ytd": 138.2, "ret_pivot": 461.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.9, "ret_60": 36.9, "ret_120": 111.1, "ret_250": 125.8, "mdd_250": -40.1, "vol_250": 79.0, "pos_52w": 76.9}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 49, "hard": 43, "bondness": 20}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 127.3 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 4.06 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 127.3 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 126%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 79%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 37% / 111%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "胜蓝股份:PE 比行业中位高 80.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点。"]}}